Helske J, Helske S, Cooper M, Ynnerman A, Besancon L (2020). “Are You Sure You're Sure? - Effects of Visual Representation on the Cliff Effect in Statistical Inference.” arXiv e-prints. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.07671.

Corresponding BibTeX entry:

  @Article{,
    author = {Jouni Helske and Satu Helske and Matthew Cooper and
      Anders Ynnerman and Lonni Besancon},
    title = {Are You Sure You're Sure? - Effects of Visual
      Representation on the Cliff Effect in Statistical Inference},
    journal = {arXiv e-prints},
    year = {2020},
    abstract = {Common reporting styles of statistical results, such as
      confidence intervals (CI), are prone to dichotomous
      interpretations especially on null hypothesis testing frameworks,
      for example by claiming significant differences between drug
      treatment and placebo groups due to the non-overlapping CIs of
      the mean effects, while disregarding the magnitudes and absolute
      difference in the effect sizes. Techniques relying on the visual
      estimation of the strength of evidence have been recommended to
      limit such dichotomous interpretations but their effectiveness
      has been challenged. We ran two experiments to compare several
      visual representations of confidence intervals, and used a
      Bayesian multilevel model to estimate the effects of
      visualization on differences in subjective confidence of the
      results. Our results suggest that adding visual information to
      standard CI representation can decrease the sudden drop around
      p-value 0.05 compared to standard CIs and textual representation
      of CI with p-values. All data analysis and scripts are available
      online: https://github.com/helske/statvis.},
    url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.07671},
    pubtype = {2},
    date = {2020},
  }